Portfolio Manager - Prediction Markets

Portfolio Manager — Prediction Markets About Moreton Capital Partners Moreton Capital Partners (MCP) is a CFTC regulated systematic, technology-first investment manager trading across commodities, alternative markets, and emerging data-rich asset classes. We combine quantitative modelling, agentic AI, and deep domain expertise to build strategies with durable, uncorrelated alpha. Prediction markets are one of the firm's high-conviction growth areas. We are building a dedicated strategy, partnering and trading on world leading event contract platforms, and are hiring an experienced Portfolio Manager to help lead it. The Role This is a senior leadership position for MCP's prediction markets strategy. You will run the investment process end to end: strategy, portfolio construction, risk management, and performance. You will build and lead a global team of traders, and you will work closely with MCP's quant research and engineering functions to develop proprietary models and infrastructure that compound our edge over time. We are looking for someone who has operated a real book — who understands market microstructure, manages drawdowns with discipline, and knows how to extract consistent expectancy from volatile, event-resolution-driven markets. This is not a research role that touches a portfolio occasionally; you are accountable for P&L. Key Responsibilities • Own the prediction markets P&L. Set strategy, manage risk limits, oversee position sizing, and ensure the portfolio operates within defined drawdown and exposure parameters at all times across all traders. • Lead the full investment process: idea generation, model validation, live execution, post-trade analysis, and systematic improvement cycles. • Build and manage a team of traders and analysts. Set research priorities, review work rigorously, and develop talent. • Define and evolve MCP's edge across strategy types: market making, cross-platform arbitrage, event-driven momentum, statistical modelling on correlated contracts, and alternative data signal development. • Work with engineering to spec and prioritise infrastructure: execution systems, data pipelines, monitoring tools, and low-latency order management. • Contribute to investor reporting and, where relevant, capital raising — articulating the strategy's edge, risk profile, and performance clearly to institutional audiences. • Significant experience managing a live quantitative or event-driven trading portfolio with genuine P&L accountability — not just advisory or model-development roles. • Demonstrated edge in prediction markets, binary event trading, options, or closely related event-resolution domains. • Strong quantitative foundation: probability, Bayesian inference, statistical modelling, and portfolio construction. • Experience managing or mentoring junior trading professionals. • Clear, substantive engagement with the prediction markets ecosystem — platforms, mechanics, recent resolutions, structural inefficiencies. We will probe this in depth. • Undergraduate or postgraduate qualification in a quantitative discipline. Bonus Points For • Experience operating on Polymarket, Kalshi, or equivalent platforms at meaningful scale. • Background in systematic commodity, macro, or multi-asset trading — our core competency and an area of genuine cross-pollination with prediction markets. • Familiarity with the analytics and data ecosystems around professional sports and major real-world event categories (politics, macroeconomics, climate). • Experience with blockchain/DeFi infrastructure relevant to on-chain prediction market platforms. • Prior involvement in fund-level processes: investor relations, risk reporting, or strategy documentation. How to Apply Send your CV and a covering note that speaks specifically to your prediction markets experience — strategies you have run, edges you have identified, how you think about managing risk in thin event-resolution-driven markets, and why this opportunity is the right next step for you. Applications reviewed on a rolling basis. Strong candidates will have a strategy discussion with MCP's senior team, followed by a detailed investment process review. Competitive base salary, meaningful performance-linked upside, and participation in MCP's broader success. Structure and quantum discussed at the offer stage with the right candidate.